TY - JOUR

T1 - Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

AU - Hyejin, Kim

AU - Peterson, Garry

AU - Cheung, William

AU - Ferrier, Simon

AU - Alkemade, Rob

AU - Arneth, Almut

AU - Kuiper, Jan

AU - Okayasu, Sana

AU - Pereira, Laura M.

AU - Acosta, Lilibeth A.

AU - Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca

AU - Belder, Eefje Den

AU - Eddy, Tyler D.

AU - Johnson, Justin

AU - Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia

AU - Kok, Marcel

AU - Leadley, Paul

AU - Leclere, David

AU - Lundquist, Carolyn J.

AU - Rondsinini, Carlo

AU - Scholes, Robert J.

AU - Schoolenberg, Machteld

AU - Shin, Yunne-Jai

AU - Stehfest, Elke

AU - Stephenson, Fabrice

AU - Visconti, Piero

AU - Van Vuuren, P. Detlef

AU - Wabnitz, Colette C.

AU - Alava, Juan Jose

AU - Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon

AU - Davies, Kathryn K.

AU - Gasalla, Maria A.

AU - Halouani, Ghassen

AU - Harfoot, Michael B.J.

AU - Hashimoto, Shizuka

AU - Hickler, Thomas

AU - Hirsch, Tim

AU - Kolomytsev, Grigory

AU - Miller, Brian

AU - Ohashi, Haruka

AU - Palomo, Maria Gabriela

AU - Popp, Alexander

AU - Remme, Roy Paco

AU - Saito, Osamu

AU - Sumaila, Rashid

AU - Willcock, Simon

AU - Pereira, Henrique

PY - 2023/9

Y1 - 2023/9

N2 - The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of socialecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people andquality of life.

AB - The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of socialecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people andquality of life.

KW - scenario analysis

KW - biodiversity

KW - conservation

KW - Sustainability

KW - values

KW - futures

U2 - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681

DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102681

M3 - Article

JO - Global Environmental Change

JF - Global Environmental Change

SN - 0959-3780

ER -