A horizon scan of issues affecting UK forest management within 50 years

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  • Eleanor R. Tew
    Forestry England
  • Bianca Ambrose-Oji
    Society and Environment Research Group, Bristol
  • Malcolm Beatty
    Office for Environmental Protection, Worcester
  • Ulf Buntgen
    University of Cambridge
  • Holly Butterworth
    Natural Resources Wales
  • Gerard Clover
    Centre for Forest Protection, Surrey
  • Dan Cook
    Forestry England
  • Dainis Dauksta
    Woodknowledge Wales
  • William Day
    Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership
  • John Deakin
    The National Trust
  • Alison Field
    Royal Forestry Society
  • Barry Gardiner
    Institut Européen de la Forêt Cultivée, France
  • Paddy Harrop
    Forestry England
  • John Healey
  • Rebecca Heaton
    Lloyds Banking Group
  • Gabriel Hemery
    Sylva Foundation
  • Louise Hill
    Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), UK
  • Oliver Hughes
    Gresham House Asset Management Ltd
  • P.K. Khaira-Creswell
    Forestry England
  • Keith Kirby
    University of Oxford
  • Andy Leitch
    Confederation of Forest Industries Ltd
  • John MacKay
    University of Oxford
  • Rebecca McIlhiney
    Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), UK
  • Brian Murphy
    Balcas Limited
  • Lee Newton
    Ordnance Survey
  • Darren Norris
    Goodwood Estate
  • Richard Nugee
    Ministry of Defence
  • John Parker
    Arboricultural Association, UK
  • Gillian Petrokofsky
    University of Oxford
  • Annie Prosser
    Forestry England
  • Chris Quine
    Forest Research
  • Gurch Randhawa
    Forestry England
  • Christine Reid
    Woodland Trust
  • Miles Richardson
    University of Derby
  • Daniel J. Ridley-Ellis
    Edinburgh Napier University
  • Rachel Riley
    Forestry England
  • Josh E. Roberts
    Forestry and Land Scotland
  • Richard Schaible
    DAERA Forest Service, UK
  • Louise E. Simpson
    The Institute of Chartered Foresters,
  • Rebecca Spake
    University of Reading
  • Ian Tubby
    Forestry Commission
  • Julie Urquhart
    University of Gloucestershire
  • Fabian Wallace-Stephens
    The Royal Society of Arts
  • Jeremy D. Wilson
    Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB)
  • William J. Sutherland
    Cambridge University
Forests are in the spotlight: they are expected to play a pivotal role in our response to society’s greatest challenges, such as the climate and biodiversity crises. Yet, the forests themselves, and the sector that manages them, face a range of interrelated threats and opportunities. Many of these are well understood, even if the solutions remain elusive. However, there are also emerging trends that are currently less widely appreciated. We report here the results of a horizon scan to identify developing issues likely to affect UK forest management within the next 50 years. These are issues that are presently under-recognized but have potential for significant impact across the sector and beyond. As the forest management sector naturally operates over long timescales, the importance of using good foresight is self-evident. We followed a tried-and-tested horizon scanning methodology involving a diverse Expert Panel to collate and prioritize a longlist of 180 issues. The top 15 issues identified are presented in the Graphical Abstract. The issues represent a diverse range of themes, within a spectrum of influences from environmental shocks and perturbations to changing political and socio-economic drivers, with complex emerging interactions between them. The most highly ranked issue was ‘Catastrophic forest ecosystem collapse’, reflecting agreement that not only is such collapse a likely prospect but it would also have huge implications across the sector and wider society. These and many of the other issues are large scale, with far-reaching implications. We must be careful to avoid inaction through being overwhelmed, or indeed to merely focus on ‘easy wins’ without considering broader ramifications. Our responses to each of the challenges and opportunities highlighted must be synergistic and coherent, involving landscape-scale planning. A more adaptive approach to forest management will be essential, encouraging continual innovation and learning. The 15 horizon scan issues presented here are a starting point on which to build further research, prompt debate and action, and develop evidence-based policy and practice. We hope that this stimulates greater recognition of how our forests and sector may need to change to be fit for the future. In some cases, these changes will need to be fundamental and momentous.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)349-362
Number of pages14
JournalForestry
Volume97
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 8 Nov 2023

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