TY - JOUR

T1 - Academic performance and financial forecasting performance:A survey study

AU - Zhu, Dan

AU - Hodgkinson, Lynn

AU - Wang, Qingwei

PY - 2018/12/10

Y1 - 2018/12/10

N2 - In a survey of forecasting stock prices over 13 months, we find better academic performance is significantly associated with smaller absolute forecasting errors, a lower propensity to be overconfident and narrower prediction intervals. The latter two findings are surprising as one would expect that less overconfident forecasters are more likely to make wider prediction intervals. Such superior forecasting ability of good academic performers may help explain why smart investors perform better in financial markets.

AB - In a survey of forecasting stock prices over 13 months, we find better academic performance is significantly associated with smaller absolute forecasting errors, a lower propensity to be overconfident and narrower prediction intervals. The latter two findings are surprising as one would expect that less overconfident forecasters are more likely to make wider prediction intervals. Such superior forecasting ability of good academic performers may help explain why smart investors perform better in financial markets.

KW - Academic performance, forecasting errors,

KW - Prediction intervals

KW - Overconfidence

U2 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.07.002

DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2018.07.002

M3 - Article

VL - 20

SP - 45

EP - 51

JO - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance

JF - Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance

SN - 2214-6350

ER -