TY - JOUR

T1 - Dynamic multi-dimensional scaling of 30+ year evolution of Chinese urban systems: patterns and performance

AU - Ning, Ying

AU - Liu, Shuguang

AU - Smith, Andy

AU - Qiu, Yi

AU - Gao, Haiqiang

AU - Yuan, W.

AU - Lu, Yonglong

AU - Yuan, Wenping

AU - Feng, Shuailong

PY - 2023/3/10

Y1 - 2023/3/10

N2 - Understanding the co-evolution and organizational dynamics of urban properties (i.e., urban scaling) is the science base for pursuing synergies toward sustainable cities and society. The generalization of urban scaling theory yet requires more studies from various developmental regimes and across time. Here, we extend the universality proposition by exploring the evolution of longitudinal and transversal scaling of Chinese urban attributes between 1987 and 2018 using a global artificial impervious area (GAIA) remotely sensed dataset, harmonized night light data (NTL), and socioeconomic data, and revealed agreements and disagreements with theories. The superlinear relationship of urban area and population often considered as an indicator of wasting land resources (challenging the universality theory β  = 2/3), is in fact the powerful impetus (capital raising) behind the concurrent superlinear expansion of socio-economic metabolisms (e.g., GDP, total wage) in a rapidly urbanizing country that has not yet reached equilibrium. Similarly, infrastructural variables associated with public services, such as hospitals and educational institutions, exhibited some deviations as well and were scaled linearly. However, the temporal narrowing of spatial deviations, such as the decline in urban land diseconomies of scale and the stabilization of economic output, clearly indicates the Chinese government's effort in charting urban systems toward balanced and sustainable development across the country. More importantly, the transversal sublinear scaling of areal-based socio-economic variables was inconsistent with the theoretical concept of increasing returns to scale, thus validating the view that a single measurement cannot unravel the intricate web of diverse urban attributes and urbanization. Our dynamic urban scaling analysis across space and through time in China provides new insights into the evolving nexus of urbanization, socioeconomic development, and national policies.

AB - Understanding the co-evolution and organizational dynamics of urban properties (i.e., urban scaling) is the science base for pursuing synergies toward sustainable cities and society. The generalization of urban scaling theory yet requires more studies from various developmental regimes and across time. Here, we extend the universality proposition by exploring the evolution of longitudinal and transversal scaling of Chinese urban attributes between 1987 and 2018 using a global artificial impervious area (GAIA) remotely sensed dataset, harmonized night light data (NTL), and socioeconomic data, and revealed agreements and disagreements with theories. The superlinear relationship of urban area and population often considered as an indicator of wasting land resources (challenging the universality theory β  = 2/3), is in fact the powerful impetus (capital raising) behind the concurrent superlinear expansion of socio-economic metabolisms (e.g., GDP, total wage) in a rapidly urbanizing country that has not yet reached equilibrium. Similarly, infrastructural variables associated with public services, such as hospitals and educational institutions, exhibited some deviations as well and were scaled linearly. However, the temporal narrowing of spatial deviations, such as the decline in urban land diseconomies of scale and the stabilization of economic output, clearly indicates the Chinese government's effort in charting urban systems toward balanced and sustainable development across the country. More importantly, the transversal sublinear scaling of areal-based socio-economic variables was inconsistent with the theoretical concept of increasing returns to scale, thus validating the view that a single measurement cannot unravel the intricate web of diverse urban attributes and urbanization. Our dynamic urban scaling analysis across space and through time in China provides new insights into the evolving nexus of urbanization, socioeconomic development, and national policies.

KW - urban growth

KW - the evolution of cities

KW - power law

KW - temporal scaling

KW - cross-sectional scaling

KW - urban sustainability

U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160705

DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.160705

M3 - Article

VL - 863

JO - Science of the Total Environment

JF - Science of the Total Environment

SN - 0048-9697

M1 - 160705

ER -