Increased mortality of tropical tree seedlings during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño

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  • Luke Browne
    Yale School of Forestry
  • Lars Markesteijn
    Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, MadridSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute
  • Bettina M. J. Engelbrecht
    University of Bayreuth
  • F. Andrew Jones
    Oregon State University
  • Owen T. Lewis
    University of Oxford
  • Eric Manzané-Pinzón
    Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
  • S. Joseph Wright
    Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
  • Liza S. Comita
    Yale School of Forestry
As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent due to global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño-related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long-term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community-wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño-related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)5043-5053
JournalGlobal Change Biology
Volume27
Issue number20
Early online date17 Jul 2021
Publication statusPublished - Oct 2021

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