Electronic versions

  • Jennifer Hewson
    Conservation International
  • Julie Hanta Razafimanahaka
    Madagasikara Voakajy, Antananarivo, Madagascar
  • Timothy Max Wright
    Conservation International
  • Rina Mandimbiniaina
    Ecole Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques
  • Mark Mulligan
    King's College London
  • J.P.G. Jones
  • Arnout Van Soesbergen
    King's College LondonUN Environment World Conservation Monitoring Centre
  • Andry Andriamananjara
    Université d’Antananarivo, Madagascar
  • Karyn Tabor
    Conservation International
  • Andriambolantsoa Rasolohery
    Conservation International Madagascar
  • Herintsitohaina Razakamanarivo
    Université d’Antananarivo, Madagascar
  • Mieja Razafindrakoto
    Université d’Antananarivo, Madagascar
  • Andrisoa Rianahary
    Université d’Antananarivo, Madagascar
  • Tantely Razafimbelo
    Université d’Antananarivo, Madagascar
  • Ntsoa Ranaivoson
    Université d’Antananarivo, Madagascar
  • Celia A Harvey
    Conservation InternationalMonteverde Institute
Decision-makers need readily accessible tools to understand the potential impacts of alternative policies on forest cover and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to develop effective policies to meet national and international targets for biodiversity conservation, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Land change modelling can support policy decisions by demonstrating potential impacts of policies on future deforestation and GHG emissions. We modelled land change to explore the potential impacts of expert-informed scenarios on deforestation and GHG emissions, specifically CO2 emissions, in the Ankeniheny–Zahamena Corridor in eastern Madagascar. We considered four scenarios: business as usual; effective conservation of protected areas; investment in infrastructure; and agricultural intensification. Our results highlight that effective forest conservation could deliver substantial emissions reductions, while infrastructure development will likely cause forest loss in new areas. Agricultural intensification could prevent additional forest loss if it reduced the need to clear more land while improving food security. Our study demonstrates how available land change modelling tools and scenario analyses can inform land-use policies, helping countries reconcile economic development with forest conservation and climate change mitigation commitments.

Keywords

  • Ankeniheny-Zahamena Corridor, Madagascar, REDD, aboveground biomass, carbon dioxide emissions, deforestation, land change modelling, policy scenarios, rural livelihoods
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)25-33
JournalEnvironmental Conservation
Volume46
Issue numberSpecial Issue 1
Early online date14 Nov 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Mar 2019

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