TY - JOUR

T1 - Land Change Modelling to Inform Strategic Decisions on Forest Cover and CO2 Emissions in Eastern Madagascar

AU - Hewson, Jennifer

AU - Razafimanahaka , Julie Hanta

AU - Wright , Timothy Max

AU - Mandimbiniaina, Rina

AU - Mulligan , Mark

AU - Jones, J.P.G.

AU - Van Soesbergen, Arnout

AU - Andriamananjara, Andry

AU - Tabor, Karyn

AU - Rasolohery, Andriambolantsoa

AU - Razakamanarivo, Herintsitohaina

AU - Razafindrakoto, Mieja

AU - Rianahary, Andrisoa

AU - Razafimbelo, Tantely

AU - Ranaivoson, Ntsoa

AU - Harvey, Celia A

PY - 2019/3

Y1 - 2019/3

N2 - Decision-makers need readily accessible tools to understand the potential impacts of alternative policies on forest cover and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to develop effective policies to meet national and international targets for biodiversity conservation, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Land change modelling can support policy decisions by demonstrating potential impacts of policies on future deforestation and GHG emissions. We modelled land change to explore the potential impacts of expert-informed scenarios on deforestation and GHG emissions, specifically CO2 emissions, in the Ankeniheny–Zahamena Corridor in eastern Madagascar. We considered four scenarios: business as usual; effective conservation of protected areas; investment in infrastructure; and agricultural intensification. Our results highlight that effective forest conservation could deliver substantial emissions reductions, while infrastructure development will likely cause forest loss in new areas. Agricultural intensification could prevent additional forest loss if it reduced the need to clear more land while improving food security. Our study demonstrates how available land change modelling tools and scenario analyses can inform land-use policies, helping countries reconcile economic development with forest conservation and climate change mitigation commitments.

AB - Decision-makers need readily accessible tools to understand the potential impacts of alternative policies on forest cover and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to develop effective policies to meet national and international targets for biodiversity conservation, sustainable development and climate change mitigation. Land change modelling can support policy decisions by demonstrating potential impacts of policies on future deforestation and GHG emissions. We modelled land change to explore the potential impacts of expert-informed scenarios on deforestation and GHG emissions, specifically CO2 emissions, in the Ankeniheny–Zahamena Corridor in eastern Madagascar. We considered four scenarios: business as usual; effective conservation of protected areas; investment in infrastructure; and agricultural intensification. Our results highlight that effective forest conservation could deliver substantial emissions reductions, while infrastructure development will likely cause forest loss in new areas. Agricultural intensification could prevent additional forest loss if it reduced the need to clear more land while improving food security. Our study demonstrates how available land change modelling tools and scenario analyses can inform land-use policies, helping countries reconcile economic development with forest conservation and climate change mitigation commitments.

KW - Ankeniheny-Zahamena Corridor

KW - Madagascar

KW - REDD

KW - aboveground biomass

KW - carbon dioxide emissions

KW - deforestation

KW - land change modelling

KW - policy scenarios

KW - rural livelihoods

U2 - 10.1017/S0376892918000358

DO - 10.1017/S0376892918000358

M3 - Article

VL - 46

SP - 25

EP - 33

JO - Environmental Conservation

JF - Environmental Conservation

SN - 0376-8929

IS - Special Issue 1

ER -