Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

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  • Kim Hyejin
    German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig
  • Garry Peterson
    Stockholm University
  • William Cheung
    University of British Columbia
  • Simon Ferrier
    CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra
  • Rob Alkemade
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • Almut Arneth
    KIT, Atmospheric Environmental Research, Germany
  • Jan Kuiper
    Stockholm University
  • Sana Okayasu
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • Laura M. Pereira
    Stockholm University
  • Lilibeth A. Acosta
    Global Green Growth Institute, South Korea
  • Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer
    Stanford University
  • Eefje Den Belder
    Wageningen University
  • Tyler D. Eddy
    Memorial University of Newfoundland
  • Justin Johnson
    University of Minnesota
  • Sylvia Karlsson-Vinkhuysen
    Wageningen University & Research
  • Marcel Kok
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • Paul Leadley
    Université Paris-Saclay
  • David Leclere
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • Carolyn J. Lundquist
    NIWA-National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
  • Carlo Rondsinini
    Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
  • Robert J. Scholes
    University of the Witwatersrand
  • Machteld Schoolenberg
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • Yunne-Jai Shin
    University of Montpellier
  • Elke Stehfest
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • Fabrice Stephenson
    NIWA-National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
  • Piero Visconti
    International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
  • P. Detlef Van Vuuren
    PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • Colette C. Wabnitz
    University of British Columbia
  • Juan Jose Alava
    University of British Columbia
  • Ivon Cuadros-Casanova
    Sapienza University of Rome, Italy
  • Kathryn K. Davies
    NIWA-National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
  • Maria A. Gasalla
    University of Sao Paulo
  • Ghassen Halouani
    Institut français de recherche pour l’exploitation de la mer (IFREMER)
  • Michael B.J. Harfoot
    UN Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Cambridge
  • Shizuka Hashimoto
    University of Tokyo
  • Thomas Hickler
    Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre, Frankfurt
  • Tim Hirsch
    Global Biodiversity Information Facility Secretariat, Copenhagen.
  • Grigory Kolomytsev
    : I.I. Schmalhausen Institute of Zoology of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
  • Brian Miller
    U.S. Geological Survey, North Central Climate Adaptation Science Center
  • Haruka Ohashi
    Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute (FFPRI), japan
  • Maria Gabriela Palomo
    Natural History Museum of Argentina
  • Alexander Popp
    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • Roy Paco Remme
    Stanford University
  • Osamu Saito
    Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), Japan
  • Rashid Sumaila
    University of British Columbia
  • Simon Willcock
  • Henrique Pereira
    German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig
The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of socialecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people and
quality of life.

Keywords

  • scenario analysis, biodiversity, conservation, Sustainability, values, futures
Original languageEnglish
JournalGlobal Environmental Change
Early online date12 Jun 2023
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Sept 2023

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