Amazon forest biogeography predicts resilience and vulnerability to drought

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  • Shuli Chen
    University of Arizona, Tucson
  • Scott C. Stark
  • Antonio Donato Nobre
    National Institute for Space Research
  • Luz Adriana Cuartas
    Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN); São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
  • Diogo de Jesus Amore
    Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN); São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil
  • Natalia Restrepo-Coupe
    University of Arizona, Tucson
  • Marielle Smith
    Michigan State University
  • Rutuja Chitra-Tarak
    Los Alamos National Laboratory
  • Hongseok Ko
    University of Arizona, Tucson
  • Bruce Nelson
    National Institute of Amazonian Research (INPA), Manaus
  • Scott R. Saleska
    University of Arizona, Tucson
Amazonia contains the most extensive tropical forests on Earth, but Amazon carbon sinks of atmospheric CO are declining, as deforestation and climate-change-associated droughts threaten to push these forests past a tipping point towards collapse . Forests exhibit complex drought responses, indicating both resilience (photosynthetic greening) and vulnerability (browning and tree mortality), that are difficult to explain by climate variation alone . Here we combine remotely sensed photosynthetic indices with ground-measured tree demography to identify mechanisms underlying drought resilience/vulnerability in different intact forest ecotopes (defined by water-table depth, soil fertility and texture, and vegetation characteristics). In higher-fertility southern Amazonia, drought response was structured by water-table depth, with resilient greening in shallow-water-table forests (where greater water availability heightened response to excess sunlight), contrasting with vulnerability (browning and excess tree mortality) over deeper water tables. Notably, the resilience of shallow-water-table forest weakened as drought lengthened. By contrast, lower-fertility northern Amazonia, with slower-growing but hardier trees (or, alternatively, tall forests, with deep-rooted water access), supported more-drought-resilient forests independent of water-table depth. This functional biogeography of drought response provides a framework for conservation decisions and improved predictions of heterogeneous forest responses to future climate changes, warning that Amazonia's most productive forests are also at greatest risk, and that longer/more frequent droughts are undermining multiple ecohydrological strategies and capacities for Amazon forest resilience. [Abstract copyright: © 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.]
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