Asynchronous carbon sink saturation in African and Amazonian tropical forests

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  • Wannes Hubau
    Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
  • Simon L Lewis
    University College London
  • Oliver L Phillips
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Kofi Affum-Baffoe
    Forestry Commission of Ghana
  • Hans Beeckman
    Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren
  • Aida Cuní-Sanchez
    University of York
  • Armandu K Daniels
    Forestry Development Authority of the Government of Liberia (FDA), Monrovia, Liberia.
  • Corneille E N Ewango
    University of Kisangani
  • Sophie Fauset
    University of Plymouth
  • Jacques M Mukinzi
    World Wide Fund
  • Douglas Sheil
    Norwegian University of Life Sciences, Department of Mathematical Science and Technology
  • Bonaventure Sonké
    University of Yaounde I
  • Martin J P Sullivan
    MMU
  • Terry C H Sunderland
    University of British Columbia
  • Hermann Taedoumg
    Bioversity International, Yaounde, Cameroon.
  • Sean C Thomas
    University of Toronto
  • Lee J T White
    University of Stirling
  • Katharine A Abernethy
    University of Stirling
  • Stephen Adu-Bredu
    Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (CSIR-FORIG)
  • Christian A Amani
    Université Officielle de Bukavu
  • Timothy R Baker
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Lindsay F Banin
    Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik, Midlothian, UK
  • Fidèle Baya
    Institut Centrafricain de Recherche Agronomique (ICRA), Bangui, Central African Republic.
  • Serge K Begne
    University of Yaounde I
  • Amy C Bennett
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Fabrice Benedet
    Université de Montpellier
  • Robert Bitariho
    Mbarara University of Science and Technology
  • Yannick E Bocko
    Université Marien Ngouabi, Brazzaville
  • Pascal Boeckx
    Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
  • Patrick Boundja
    Wildlife Conservation Society, Brazzaville
  • Roel J W Brienen
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Terry Brncic
    Wildlife Conservation Society, Brazzaville
  • Eric Chezeaux
    Rougier-Gabon, Libreville, Gabon.
  • George B Chuyong
    University of Buea
  • Connie J Clark
    Duke University
  • Murray Collins
    Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, London, UK.
  • James A Comiskey
    University of Copenhagen
  • David A Coomes
    University of Cambridge
  • Greta C Dargie
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Thales de Haulleville
    Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren
  • Marie Noel Djuikouo Kamdem
    University of Buea
  • Jean-Louis Doucet
    University of Liege
  • Adriane Esquivel-Muelbert
    School of Sport and Exercise Sciences, University of Birmingham
  • Ted R Feldpausch
    College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Penryn Campus, Penryn, 9 TR10 9EZ, UK.
  • Alusine Fofanah
    The Gola Rainforest National Park, Kenema, Sierra Leone.
  • Ernest G Foli
    Forestry Research Institute of Ghana (CSIR-FORIG)
  • Martin Gilpin
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Emanuel Gloor
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Christelle Gonmadje
    National Herbarium, Yaounde, Cameroon.
  • Sylvie Gourlet-Fleury
    Université de Montpellier
  • Jefferson S Hall
    Forest Global Earth Observatory (ForestGEO), Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, Washington, DC, USA.
  • Alan C Hamilton
    Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming
  • David J Harris
    Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
  • Terese B Hart
    Yale Peabody Museum of Natural History
  • Mireille B N Hockemba
    Wildlife Conservation Society, Brazzaville
  • Annette Hladik
    Muséum national d’Histoire naturelle, UMR 7205 CNRS Institut de Systématique, Evolution et Biodiversité, 25 rue Cuvier, CP 30, 75005 Paris, France
  • Suspense A Ifo
    Université Marien Ngouabi, Brazzaville
  • Kathryn J Jeffery
    University of Stirling
  • Tommaso Jucker
    University of Bristol
  • Emmanuel Kasongo Yakusu
    University of Kisangani
  • Elizabeth Kearsley
    Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
  • David Kenfack
    Tropical Ecology, Assessment and Monitoring (TEAM) Network, Arlington, VA, USA.
  • Alexander Koch
    University of Hong Kong
  • Miguel E Leal
    Uganda Programme, Wildlife Conservation Society, Kampala, Uganda.
  • Aurora Levesley
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Jeremy A Lindsell
    Centre for Conservation Science, The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy, UK.
  • Janvier Lisingo
    University of Kisangani
  • Gabriela Lopez-Gonzalez
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Jon C Lovett
    Grand Challenges in Ecosystem and the Environment Initiative, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK alexander.papadopulos@plants.ox.ac.uk.
  • Jean-Remy Makana
    University of Kisangani
  • Yadvinder Malhi
    University of Oxford
  • Andrew R Marshall
    Flamingo Land Ltd, Kirby Misperton, UK.
  • Jim Martin
    Fleming College, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada.
  • Emanuel H Martin
    Udzungwa Ecological Monitoring Centre, Mang'ula, Tanzania.
  • Faustin M Mbayu
    University of Kisangani
  • Vincent P Medjibe
    Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux, Libreville, Gabon.
  • Vianet Mihindou
    Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux, Libreville, Gabon.
  • Edward T A Mitchard
    University of Edinburgh
  • Sam Moore
    University of Oxford
  • Pantaleo K T Munishi
    Sokoine University of Agriculture
  • Natacha Nssi Bengone
    Ministry of Forests, Seas, Environment and Climate, Libreville, Gabon.
  • Lucas Ojo
    Federal University of Agriculture, Abeokuta
  • Fidèle Evouna Ondo
    Agence Nationale des Parcs Nationaux, Libreville, Gabon.
  • Kelvin S-H Peh
    University of Cambridge
  • Georgia C Pickavance
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • Axel Dalberg Poulsen
    Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh
  • John R Poulsen
    Duke University
  • Lan Qie
    University of Lincoln
  • Jan Reitsma
    Bureau Waardenburg, Culemborg
  • Francesco Rovero
    MUSE-Museo delle Scienze, Trento
  • Michael D Swaine
    University of Aberdeen
  • Joey Talbot
    School of Geography, University of Leeds, UK
  • James Taplin
    Innovate UK
  • David M Taylor
    National University of Singapore
  • Duncan W Thomas
    Washington State University
  • Benjamin Toirambe
    Ministère de l'Environnement et Développement Durable, Kinshasa
  • John Tshibamba Mukendi
    Université de Mbujimayi
  • Darlington Tuagben
    Friends of Ecosystem and the Environment, Monrovia, Liberia.
  • Peter M Umunay
    Wildlife Conservation Society, New York
  • Geertje M F van der Heijden
    University of Nottingham
  • Hans Verbeeck
    Department of Experimental Clinical and Health Psychology, Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium
  • Jason Vleminckx
    Faculté des Sciences, Service d'Évolution Biologique et Écologie, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium.
  • Simon Willcock
  • Hannsjörg Wöll
    Independent Researcher, Bad Aussee, Austria.
  • John T Woods
    University of Liberia
  • Lise Zemagho
    University of Yaounde I
Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered ~50% of global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing ~15% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions1-3. Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest ‘carbon sink’ will continue for decades4,5. Here, we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, we compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 Mg C ha-1 yr-1 (95% CI:0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests6. Thus, the carbon sink responses of Earth’s two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric CO2 and air temperature7-9. Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our data suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including CO2, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, while the Amazonian sink continues to rapidly weaken. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth’s intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern hemisphere landmass10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already saturated. This tropical forest sink saturation and ongoing decline has consequences for policies to stabilise Earth’s climate.
Iaith wreiddiolSaesneg
Tudalennau (o-i)80-87
Nifer y tudalennau8
CyfnodolynNature
Cyfrol579
Rhif y cyfnodolyn7797
Dyddiad ar-lein cynnar4 Maw 2020
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StatwsCyhoeddwyd - 5 Maw 2020

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