TY - JOUR

T1 - Patterns of abundance across geographical ranges as a predictor for responses to climate change: evidence from UK rocky shores

AU - Vye, Siobhan

AU - Dickens, Stephanie

AU - Adams, Leoni C

AU - Bohn, Katrin

AU - Chenery, Jade

AU - Dobson, Nicola

AU - Dunn, Ruth E.

AU - Earp, Hannah

AU - Evans, Megan

AU - Foster, Charlotte

AU - Grist, Hannah

AU - Holt, Ben

AU - Hull, Sue

AU - Jenkins, Stuart

AU - Lamont, Peter

AU - Long, Sarah

AU - Mieszkowska, Nova

AU - Millard, Justine

AU - Morrall, Zoe

AU - Pack, Kathryn

AU - Parry-Wilson, Hannah

AU - Pocklington, Jacqueline

AU - Pottas, Jane

AU - Richardson, Leonie

AU - Scott, Abigail

AU - Sugden, Heather

AU - Watson, Gordon

AU - West, Victoria

AU - Winton, Debbie

AU - Delaney, Jane

AU - Burrows, Michael T.

PY - 2020/10

Y1 - 2020/10

N2 - AimUnderstanding patterns in the abundance of species across thermal ranges can give useful insights into the potential impacts of climate change. The abundant‐centre hypothesis suggests that species will reach peak abundance at the centre of their thermal range where conditions are optimal, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is mixed and limited in geographical and taxonomic scope. We tested the applicability of the abundant‐centre hypothesis across a range of intertidal organisms using a large, citizen science‐generated data set.LocationUK.MethodsSpecies' abundance records were matched with their location within their thermal range. Patterns in abundance distribution for individual species, and across aggregated species abundances, were analysed using Kruskal–Wallis tests and quantile general additive models.ResultsIndividually, invertebrate species showed increasing abundances in the cooler half of the thermal range and decreasing abundances in the warmer half of the thermal range. The overall shape for aggregated invertebrate species abundances reflected a broad peak, with a cool‐skewed maximum abundance. Algal species showed little evidence for an abundant‐centre distribution individually, but overall the aggregated species abundances suggested a hump‐backed abundance distribution.Main ConclusionsOur study follows others in showing mixed support for the abundant‐centre hypothesis at an individual species level, but demonstrates an increased predictability in species responses when an aggregated overall response is considered.

AB - AimUnderstanding patterns in the abundance of species across thermal ranges can give useful insights into the potential impacts of climate change. The abundant‐centre hypothesis suggests that species will reach peak abundance at the centre of their thermal range where conditions are optimal, but evidence in support of this hypothesis is mixed and limited in geographical and taxonomic scope. We tested the applicability of the abundant‐centre hypothesis across a range of intertidal organisms using a large, citizen science‐generated data set.LocationUK.MethodsSpecies' abundance records were matched with their location within their thermal range. Patterns in abundance distribution for individual species, and across aggregated species abundances, were analysed using Kruskal–Wallis tests and quantile general additive models.ResultsIndividually, invertebrate species showed increasing abundances in the cooler half of the thermal range and decreasing abundances in the warmer half of the thermal range. The overall shape for aggregated invertebrate species abundances reflected a broad peak, with a cool‐skewed maximum abundance. Algal species showed little evidence for an abundant‐centre distribution individually, but overall the aggregated species abundances suggested a hump‐backed abundance distribution.Main ConclusionsOur study follows others in showing mixed support for the abundant‐centre hypothesis at an individual species level, but demonstrates an increased predictability in species responses when an aggregated overall response is considered.

KW - abundant-centre hypothesis

KW - algae

KW - citizen science

KW - intertidal

KW - invertebrates

KW - thermal niche

U2 - 10.1111/ddi.13118

DO - 10.1111/ddi.13118

M3 - Article

VL - 26

SP - 1357

EP - 1365

JO - Diversity and Distributions

JF - Diversity and Distributions

SN - 1472-4642

IS - 10

ER -